President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono officially launched Indonesia’s national Population Projection 2010-2035 on 29 January 2014 at the Presidential Palace, Jakarta. The event was attended by national leaders including Vice President Budiono, Minister of People’s Welfare Agung Laksono, Minister of State’s Secretary Sudi Silalahi, other line ministers, and around 300 invitees. Mr. Jose Ferraris UNFPA Representative in Indonesia also attended as UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, is the main supporting partner for the Government of Indonesia (GOI) on population dynamics and related issues.

Before the launch event, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) hosted a constructive discussion of the Population Projection at its head office. Prof. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana (Minister of Bappenas) and Mr. Jose Ferraris (UNFPA) opened the discussion, which included four speakers: Prof. Peter McDonald (Australia National University), Dr. Suryamin (Head of BPS-Statisitcs Indonesia), Prof. Suahasil Nazara (University of Indonesia), and Dr. Ceppie Kurniadi Sumadilaga, MA (Deputy for Poverty, Labour and Small Enterprises at Bappenas).

In his remarks, Mr. Ferraris, conveying UNFPA’s mandate in Indonesia, highlighted the importance of population dynamics in eradicating poverty and realising sustainable development. “The major population trends of population growth, ageing, urbanization and migration have tremendous bearing on social and economic development and environmental sustainability,” said Mr. Ferraris. “The alleviation of poverty, security of human wellbeing, and prevention of environmental degradation will not be possible without consideration of future population numbers for whom jobs, housing, transport systems and a variety of social services are to be provided.”

The new Population Projections will be an important consideration in the preparation of Indonesia’s National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN). The RPJPN guides the GOI to achieve long-term goals and sets out the vision, mission and direction of national development priorities for the next 20 years. The RPJPN should be based on accurate information about current and future population size and age composition that will support development planning at national and local levels. This mandate was reaffirmed by Indonesia’s Minister of People’s Welfare, Agung Laksono, who agreed that population dynamics must be integrated into the nation’s development plan.

Evidence-Based Policy

The GOI is committed to improving the quality of its policy by maximising the use of facts and data as references in formulating and implementing national and local policies. In relation to population dynamics, Indonesia will rely on available population data such as the National Census, the National Social Economic Survey (Susenas), the National Labour Force Survey (Sakernas), and the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS).

Prof. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana (Minister of Bappenas) suggested that population should be seen as an object as well as a subject for national development. “It is important for all policy makers, decision makers, academics, central government and local government to always consider the population and its dynamics in the planning or development which we often refer to as "population oriented development", said Prof. Armida. “The availability of population data is a prerequisite of quality development planning. The population data can be used for planning of development in various fields, such as education, health, family planning, labor, provision of food, shelter, and others.”

The President’s Remarks

In his remarks at the launch of the Population Projection, President Yudhoyono emphasised the importance of improving the quality of the Indonesian population as a whole through improving the quality and potential of each individual. In order to achieve that goal, it is necessary to improve standards of living through education and health outcomes, but the development plan to do so must be based upon relevant data. Discussions and debates with no sufficient supporting evidence would only bring about tensions, not solutions.

The President noted that the projected population size of 305 million in 2035 would be an advantage if Indonesia is willing to invest in human capital. This means that every individual in the population has the quality to contribute to the development of the country. On the contrary, if the country fails to invest in human capital, the big population will become a massive national burden. A national commitment to investing in human capital must be supported and improved, said President Yudhoyono.

About the Population Projection

Population projections are used to understand the likely population size and age composition by region in the future. The figures are based on the recent past trends of demographic parameters. These population projections are very important for Government policy and programming formulation. They have financial implications for programme implementation in many sectors, such as education, health, family planning, and housing.

The institution in charge of estimating the population projections is BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Bappenas, Ministry of Health, and National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) have been closely consulted on the assumptions used to calculate the population projections. UNFPA has provided technical assistance during the consultation process through support by demographers and other experts for quality assurance purposes. The calculation of the population projections were initiated in 2012 and completed in 2013.

Tags: population