Fertility has declined more than halved since 1971 to 2000 from 5.6 children per woman to 2.3 children per woman respectively. The decline has been followed by shift in the pattern of fertility from peaking at the age group of 20-24 years old in 1971 to the age group of 25-29 years old in 2000.

The same source shows that Infant mortality rate has declined two third in the past three decades from 142 deaths per 1,000 live-births in 1971 to 47 deaths per 1,000 live-births in 2000. Since infant and child deaths had accounted for a large portion of national mortality, the improved health of these age groups has rapidly increased the overall rate of survival. The life expectancy at birth rose from 45.7 years in 1971 to 65.4 years in 2000. This brings to the consequences of increasing the number of old people as one of population emerging issue in Indonesia. The 2000 Population Census shows that the number of old people (aged 65 and over) consist of 4.65 per cent from the total population. This proportion is expected to increase to 5.22 per cent by 2010.

Population growth rate has declined from 2.1 per cent per year in 1971 to 1.49 per cent per year in 2000. However, due to the young structure of the population, the number of people still rose from 119.2 million to 206.3 at the same period . The increase in the number of population has been followed by the increase in urbanization. The percentage of people living in urban areas has risen from 17.2 per cent in 1971 to 42.2 per cent in 2000. This increase has been attributable to the increase of urban growth from 3.6 per cent per year in 1971 to 4.2 per cent in 2000, and decreasing rural growth from 1.8 per cent to 0.3 per cent at the same period.

The decrease of dependency ratio due to the increase of young people entering the labour market is also known as demographic bonus. This period will not last long as the ratio will increase again once the population age structure changes in the future

There are at least four major issues that need to be addressed by the Government, as follows:

1. To stabilize population growth
2. To address impact of large working age population (especially youth employment) to benefit from the ‘demographic bonus’
3. To lower fertility, in particular to address adolescent fertility
4. To increase life expectancy, lower child and maternal mortality and address HIV/AIDS

As mentioned earlier, particular attention should be given to the provinces that still have the demographic indicators such as fertility, mortality, population growth due to natural increase, and population density whose levels are above the respective national levels.

It is observed that the commitment of the Government has been changed in the recent years, especially after former President Suharto has been replaced by new Government. The New Government, despite indicating that they continue the programme of the former Government, do not have a clear and comprehensive policy on population. Population issues are addressed in the PROPENAS and Mid-term development plan, however, there is no attempt to establish the policy and institution according to the existing Law no 10/1992 on Population and Prosperous Family. This situation has caused the uncertainties among the concerned authorities in addressing a comprehensive population issues, leading to reverse impacts to social development that have been achieved in the past.

The unclear commitment of the national government has been exacerbated by the decentralization of BKKBN, an institution that implements family planning programme in the country. Under the decentralization of this institution, the district Government decides whether to have population/family planning programme or not. Consequently, there will be no comprehensive coordinated programme affecting the whole nation.

Lack of capacity both at national and district level

Lack of attention from the central government and local government has caused the reduced human capacity at both levels. It is observed that there is an increasing number of trained and skillful personnel move away from the field of population as their expertise are no longer fully utilized. Additionally, high turn over of the personnel at the district level has contributed to the lacking of the human capacity in the area.

Lack of clear institutional structure

After the abolishment of the Ministry of Population, there is no single Government institution in charge of Population issues. The Government addresses population matters not in a comprehensive and coordinated way. As an example, the Coordinating Ministry of Social Welfare has responded the country response to the implementation of ICPD as inquired by UNFPA. However, Ministry of Women Empowerment and BKKBN is now in charge with celebrating and preparing country paper in light of the commemoration of ICPD at 10.

Lack of population data for development at the district levels and their linkages to the development

After the decentralization, there is a need to understand the local situation. Population data and information specific for the districts are insufficient. A more comprehensive information regarding the response of the district on the population and development issues is urgently required. This is because the policies and strategies will no longer the same for all areas. Classification of areas based on their needs is necessary.